How China is laying new TRAP for India?

In this video, we will discuss how Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.

Reference -
https://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/substantial-progress-made-in-rcep-negotiations-china-118041900745_1.html

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/jul/2/asia-ministers-push-plan-worlds-largest-trade-bloc/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-16/panic-roils-china-s-p2p-lenders-as-savers-rush-to-withdraw-cash
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/worlds-biggest-trading-bloc-a-step-closer-after-tokyo-meeting/articleshow/64822622.cms
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/the-rcep-effect-on-india/article8835743.ece
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/india-has-trade-deficit-with-10-regional-comprehensive-economic-partnership-rcep-members/articleshow/64620160.cms
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Comprehensive_Economic_Partnership
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_India
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_China



Transcript - 


Hello Friends, welcome to Real Quick Info channel. Lets discuss our Original Real Quick Analysis.



Earlier this month, you might have read in newspapers about India joining proposed largest trading bock of 16 Asian countries.



As expected, Indian mainstream media has welcome the possibility of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership being launched on November this year.



Basically,  The talks for this free trade agreement have been going on for last 6 years, and this agreement is expected to reach conclusion very soon.



Just like anyone of you watching this video, we are firm believer in free and fair trade, and we totally find it good that collectively, we should join hands to grow total trade volume, rather than focusing on increasing our individual Indian trade volume.



Having said that, we must remember the fact, that China is major force behind this initiative.



We need not tell you, China is facing increasing heat from America on trade side, and It is disparately looking to maintain its higher growth rate by growing the market size for it.



Interestingly, lets keep China side, out of rest 14 members of this group, India is having trade deficit with 9 of them.



In last financial year, India has total 137  Billion dollar trade deficit. Thanks to only seven of these countries, they contributed whopping 86 Billion Dollar trade deficit to India.



While advocating for this free trade agreement, Indian commerce secretary says that trade deficit is not necessarily bad, and we cannot produce everything in India, Basically she is defending trade deficit.



That's fine, however why India is running net trade deficit of whopping 137 Billion dollars. Which is clearly unsustainable.



now consider this, last year alone, China has huge trade surplus of 420 Billion dollars.



In this background, As per the proposal, if India ends up opening its 90 to 95 percent market with lesser or no tariffs, it would be clear suicidal step for overall Indian  economy.



India has been trying hard to include Services sector in this free trade agreement, so that India can at least hope for growth in the export of Information technology services, however other members are not very keen on opening their economy for Indian software services.



Basically, they want to grow their trade surplus for themselves and trade deficit for India.


Majority of these countries have matured manufacturing base, as soon as Indian Market opens up, Tsunami of cheap goods will enter in Indian market.



This fierce competition from established players will make it much harder for Indian manufacturing companies to grow faster.



In this way, this free trade agreement may end up granting their goods full access to Indian Market, but  Indian IT services will not have equivalent access to their market.



Now, you look closely, Thanks to ongoing trade war, with reduced access to American market, these smart countries will be able to grow their market.



However, as you know, Thanks to US Visa restrictions, foolish India may not have any opportunity to make up for the loss of US Services Market.



This simply means, Our trade deficit will increase along with growing trade volume. You know, Trade surplus makes any country rich and powerful, not trade deficit.



If you talk to any economist, he will say there is no job loss due to trade deficit.



However, over last 20 years, We all have seen in our neighborhood, how Chinese flood of goods has created drought of job opportunities for common Indians.



On account of opening our economy, we were able to grow fast. however we cannot grow faster, if we continue to let trade deficit grow with increasing trade volume.


That's where, Being part of crowd of 16 countries we can join this so called Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, and let these 15 countries continue to rob us in future.



Or being leader, we can simply say No to this group, as long as it doesn't  help us in fixing the basic problem of rising trade deficit and declining job opportunities.



If still Modi government ends up joining this agreement, we would simply invite death by China.



Albert Einstein once said, Extreme foolishness is doing the same thing over and over again, and expecting different results.



This time again, Being foolish,  we are opening Indian economy more with the hope that we will have reduced trade deficit and increased job opportunities. 

In simple words, This is nothing but Chinese death trap waiting for India.



As per your views, should we join current Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement in November this year?



Please let us know your views in comment section below.




Please find the reference links of this video in the description box below. Thank you friends for watching this video.

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