Trump to allow Indian import of Iranian oil after 4 November??

In this video, we will discuss about waiver from American sanctions.



Reference -
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/oil-gas/india-seeks-ways-to-continue-iran-oil-imports/articleshow/64819274.cms
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/iran-vows-to-foil-us-bid-to-block-its-oil-exports/articleshow/64816289.cms
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-usa-khamenei/irans-leaders-seek-ways-to-defend-economy-from-u-s-sanctions-idUSKBN1JQ0A2

Transcript - 

Hello Friends, welcome to Real Quick Info channel. Lets discuss about today's topic.



We have recently discussed about American determination to ensure that Iran could not export even a drop of crude oil after 4th November.



In order to contain crude oil price rise, Trump Administration has managed to convince Saudi Arabia to increase oil production by 2 Million Barrels per day.



However, if America manages to ensure complete freeze on  Iranian oil export, current 4 Million Barrels per day supply of Iranian oil will vanish immediately.



There will still be gap of 2 Million barrels per day, therefore the price is going to rise for sure. President Trump understand this basic math.



Till 26 June, American administration was in no mood to consider granting waiver for other nations to buy Iranian crude oil.



However, by 27 June, American treasury department seem to have landed on the ground and created scope for waiver from sanctions in American national interest.



Now, it appears, if any country shows significant reduction in the volume of Iranian crude oil purchase, it can be considered for waiver from American sanctions.



This executive change in rules simply opens gate for India to engage with Trump administration to reach some sort of understanding to buy Iranian crude oil post 4th November.



As of now, it appears certainty that India will have to reduce Iranian oil import, if not stop importing from Iran.



Though hope has been revived with this rule change, yet it would be premature for us to believe that Trump administration will be easily providing any kind of waiver to India.



The way Trump works, its more than likely, that he will not grant any sort of waiver, with his maximum pressure campaign, he would prefer to bring Current Iranian regime on dialog table as soon as possible.



What is rather interesting is, the problems of Iran are its own making. For example, the massive protest in Iran are basically fueled by scarcity of drinking water in oil rich country. President Trump would obviously want to exploit this situation.



In this background, Needless to say, Regime change in Iran has been dream for Last six American presidents, and  trump would be more than happy to fulfill it.





Anyways, If we continue to buy Iranian oil in the same amount, American sanctions will severely affect Indian economy.



If India stops buying Iranian oil, or reduces the amount of Iranian oil, India Iran relationship, future of Chabahar port will be negatively affected. Needless to say, we will have to pay more to buy same amount of crude oil from other sources.



Therefore India is going to incur loss in both case whether we buy Iranian oil, or not.





That's why keeping emotions aside, we need to  carefully find a way to ensure the minimum loss  to Indian interests.



On the other hand, Iran is also trying to find ways to sell crude oil even when American sanctions come in to play.



Iran has even threatened other oil producing countries against increasing oil production to fill up the gap in international oil supply. It would be interesting to see how Iran finds a way out.



Basically, if you see, things are changing very rapidly, we got to prepare for all eventualities.



In this circumstances,  to take decision, The underlying principal should be to keep India first. neither America first nor Iran first.



As per your views, disregarding Indian interests, Should India buy Iranian oil post 4th November?



Please let us know your views in comment section below.


Please find the reference links of this video in the description box below. Thank you friends for watching this video.

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