Why is India wasting $1.5 Billion to Maldives??
Reference -
https://www.ft.com/content/3459cfcc-01ee-11e9-99df-6183d3002ee1
https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2018/11/28/modi-should-not-bail-out-china-in-maldives/#59f21a5f41d8
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-Relations/India-offers-Maldives-1bn-in-loans-to-help-repay-China-debt
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-maldives-politics-china/after-building-spree-just-how-much-does-the-maldives-owe-china-idUSKCN1NS1J2
https://www.mea.gov.in/Portal/ForeignRelation/Sri_Lanka_November_2017_NEW.pdf
https://www.mea.gov.in/Portal/ForeignRelation/Sri_Lanka_December_2016.pdf
https://www.livemint.com/Politics/XeGU40jlsHGKrfwfJK1ccL/Govt-announces-Rs60000crore-loan-waiver-for-farmers.html
Transcript -
Hello Friends, welcome to Real Quick Info channel. Lets discuss our Real Quick Analysis.
You know that During Indian visit of Maldivian president India has offered 1.4 Billion Dollars in Financial aid to Maldives.
As per the official statement, this aid will be provided in the form of budgetary support, loans and currency swap.
first of all, we welcome Indian government extending helpful hand with money towards Maldives. After new government came to power, India would have been foolish not to support new Maldivian government.
If you see, India seem to have learnt from the experience of Sri Lanka. After new government came into power there in 2015, We didn't provide any special financial aid to Sri Lanka.
if you want to compare, as of this year, total Indian financial aid to Sri lanka is 2.6 Billion Dollars.
This could partly explain why It became very difficult for Sri Lanka to repay Chinese loans, and it had to eventually give up control of Hambantota port to China for 99 years in the year 2017.
It appears, Indian generous financial help is way to prevent Maldives handing over the control of its asset to China in order to reduce the burden of Chinese loans.
On the face of it, Indian financial aid appears towards Maldives, but in reality its Indian bailout to China.
When Chinese ambassador met for the first time with newly elected president, it was reported that he handed over Chinese bill of 3.2 Billion Dollars.
Obviously, China has denied any such figure, but if this figure is true, each Maldivian has Chinese debt worth 8000 dollars.
Later Maldivian foreign minister estimated that they owe at least 3 Billion Dollars to China.
however as per Governor of Maldives central bank, Maldives's total liabilities to china is 1.5 Billion Dollars. Needless to say, this is more reliable figure.
Now, India is providing 1.4 Billion Dollars financial aid to Maldives.
While Indian financial aid will not directly be used to service Chinese loans, but it will certainly give Maldivian government some breathing space, so that it will be able to pay back China over a period of time, rather than selling its assets to China as Sri Lanka did.
Indian government's helping hand is appreciated here.
but please Consider this, current government is trying to ensure, that Maldives comes out of Chinese influence, but in most likelihood after next year's general election, India itself will move in Chinese influence zone.
if you see, Congress led weak coalition government will be too much busy in managing itself, that it will have no time to respond to Chinese well crafted moves.
You all know, last round of assembly election, Congress won election in three states, To a great extent thanks goes to the promise of Farm loan waiver.
Its more likely that Congress would promise national farm loan waiver before next general election.
You may recall, While presenting union budget in the year 2008, Congress promised loan waiver and reaped the rich harvest in the year 2009 by winning general election.
The point is simple, Tax payers money is going to be used to win the general election. The question is, who is going to spend it and when?
Modi Government can announce farm loan waiver before the election and hope to win in next general election, otherwise congress party is going to announce it and win the next general election for sure.
Throwing principals of economics in dustbin, the money is going to be distributed. the question is, if it will be distributed before general election by current NDA government or after general election by UPA government.
That's where, rather than giving 1.4 Billion Dollars to Maldives, Indian government should have used the same money for the welfare of Indian farmers and middle class.
from the long term perspective, it makes perfect sense to help Maldives now, but if Modi government loses election, India will again go in sleep mode that Maldives will have no way other than to going in to Chinese lab.
bigger point is, for Indian public long term no longer holds value. for them today matters most and who gives them maximum.
As you all know, while Pakistanis makes conspiracy for next 1000 years, Chinese makes strategy for next 100 years, Indians worry about what national kid is doing today.
Needless to say, Those people who are busy in following the marriages and reality shows often say, Modi government has not done enough.
Now it appears, Just like first NDA government, Second NDA government will also pay the price for long term planning.
As per your analysis, rather than helping Maldives to pay chinese loans, should Indian government not help Indian farmers and middle class?
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